TrueCar and ALG Forecast Both New and Used Vehicle Retail Sales Up Year-Over-Year for October …

  • New vehicle retail sales sustain momentum as retail sales increase year-over-year for the second month in a row, up 0.3% adjusted for selling days
  • Used vehicle sales forecast to be up year-over-year for fifth consecutive month
  • Average Transaction Prices are expected to increase 3.1% year-over-year

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Oct. 27, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — TrueCar, Inc., and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary, project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,307,998 units in October 2020, down 6.1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.7 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,188,043 units, an increase of 0.3% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.1% or $1,223 from a year ago and up 0.7% or $262 from September 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $48 billion for October 2020, up 0.4% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 2.5% from last month.

“The auto industry recovery is absolutely striking. We clawed back more new car sales each month since sales bottomed out in April and are now seeing year-over-year new car retail sales growth for two consecutive months. This is a phenomenal outcome for the industry, as inventory is starting to rebound and demand remains high. There are positive signals that the recovery will sustain,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG.

“A handful of brands, such as Mercedes and Subaru, are seeing an increase in sales month-over-month which is notable given that sales typically trend stronger in September than in October,” added Lyman. “These brands were hit harder by inventory shortages previously and are starting to replenish supply and address pent up demand.”

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar )

  • Total retail sales for October 2020 are expected to be up 0.3% from a year ago and down 14.3% from September 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for October 2020 are expected to be down 43% from a year ago and down 6% from September 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 5% from a year ago from 16.5 million units to 15.7 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for October 2020 are expected to reach 3.3 million, up 1% from a year ago and down 4% from September 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.1%.

“Domestic automakers such as FCA and GM have made significant jumps in retail sales year-over-year, as shoppers continue purchasing large utility vehicles and trucks,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “There was a 5.4% increase in demand for utility vehicles and an increase of 8.4% in demand for pickup trucks year-over-year on the TrueCar platform.”

“New vehicle average transaction prices continue to rise year-over-year due to this consumer preference toward larger vehicles. Used vehicle prices have also increased significantly in the past few months, as a result of the new car inventory shortages and strong consumer demand,” added Woolard. “On the TrueCar platform, used vehicle listing prices increased by 7.6% year over year, making this a great time for consumers who are looking to trade-in or sell their vehicles and use the funds to upgrade to a new vehicle.”

ALG will be hosting the 20/20 Hindsight webinar on November 17, 2020 at 11 am PT. Join us as we will look back on 2020 with a review of how the outlook for the automotive industry has evolved since the early stages of COVID-19. Experts will discuss key learnings, the decisions that improved performance or made things worse, while leaning into the data points that are leading to a more optimistic recovery and ensuring that 2021 is a rebound year for all stakeholders in the industry.
For early registration of this complimentary webinar,

click here

.

October 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom and TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales
















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 26,131 28,518 31,031 -8.4 % -11.6 % -15.8 % -24.8 %
Daimler 22,834 32,130 22,052 -28.9 % -31.5 % 3.5 % -7.5 %
FCA 159,268 177,120 178,807 -10.1 % -13.3 % -10.9 % -20.5 %
Ford 187,646 193,571 189,375 -3.1 % -6.5 % -0.9 % -11.5 %
GM 228,122 209,870 238,542 8.7 % 4.8 % -4.4 % -14.6 %
Honda 127,531 131,443 127,058 -3.0 % -6.4 % 0.4 % -10.4 %
Hyundai 53,322 59,029 55,918 -9.7 % -12.9 % -4.6 % -14.9 %
Kia 51,972 50,007 55,519 3.9 % 0.2 % -6.4 % -16.4 %
Nissan 75,134 103,563 73,854 -27.5 % -30.0 % 1.7 % -9.2 %
Subaru 61,096 55,531 60,103 10.0 % 6.1 % 1.7 % -9.2 %
Tesla 19,073 14,000 20,900 36.2 % 31.4 % -8.7 % -18.5 %
Toyota 199,767 188,787 199,126 5.8 % 2.0 % 0.3 % -10.4 %
Volkswagen Group 49,904 53,067 50,482 -6.0 % -9.3 % -1.1 % -11.7 %
Industry 1,307,998 1,343,842 1,351,643 -2.7 % -6.1 % -3.2 % -13.6 %

Retail Unit Sales
















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 25,312 25,365 29,810 -0.2 % -3.8 % -15.1 % -24.2 %
Daimler 22,195 28,936 21,333 -23.3 % -26.0 % 4.0 % -7.1 %
FCA 139,994 131,397 150,953 6.5 % 2.7 % -7.3 % -17.2 %
Ford 147,250 143,098 149,144 2.9 % -0.8 % -1.3 % -11.8 %
GM 198,479 180,840 210,463 9.8 % 5.8 % -5.7 % -15.8 %
Honda 126,943 130,268 126,527 -2.6 % -6.0 % 0.3 % -10.4 %
Hyundai 50,178 46,533 53,135 7.8 % 4.0 % -5.6 % -15.7 %
Kia 50,488 43,262 54,346 16.7 % 12.5 % -7.1 % -17.1 %
Nissan 69,570 71,779 71,138 -3.1 % -6.5 % -2.2 % -12.7 %
Subaru 59,904 54,112 59,173 10.7 % 6.8 % 1.2 % -9.6 %
Tesla 19,061 14,000 20,890 36.1 % 31.3 % -8.8 % -18.5 %
Toyota 184,891 176,689 192,565 4.6 % 0.9 % -4.0 % -14.3 %
Volkswagen Group 49,702 52,400 50,274 -5.1 % -8.5 % -1.1 % -11.7 %
Industry 1,188,043 1,141,863 1,237,638 4.0 % 0.3 % -4.0 % -14.3 %

Fleet Unit Sales
















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 820 3,153 1,221 -74.0 % -74.9 % -32.9 % -40.1 %
Daimler 639 3,194 719 -80.0 % -80.7 % -11.1 % -20.6 %
FCA 19,275 45,723 27,854 -57.8 % -59.4 % -30.8 % -38.2 %
Ford 40,396 50,473 40,231 -20.0 % -22.8 % 0.4 % -10.3 %
GM 29,643 29,030 28,079 2.1 % -1.5 % 5.6 % -5.7 %
Honda 588 1,175 531 -50.0 % -51.8 % 10.7 % -1.2 %
Hyundai 3,144 12,496 2,783 -74.8 % -75.7 % 13.0 % 0.9 %
Kia 1,484 6,745 1,173 -78.0 % -78.8 % 26.5 % 13.0 %
Nissan 5,564 31,784 2,716 -82.5 % -83.1 % 104.8 % 82.9 %
Subaru 1,192 1,419 930 -16.0 % -19.0 % 28.2 % 14.5 %
Tesla 12 10     14.4 % 2.1 %
Toyota 14,877 12,098 6,561 23.0 % 18.6 % 126.8 % 102.5 %
Volkswagen Group 202 667 208 -69.7 % -70.8 % -2.8 % -13.2 %
Industry 119,955 201,979 114,005 -40.6 % -42.7 % 5.2 % -6.1 %

Fleet Penetration
















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 3.1 % 11.1 % 3.9 % -71.6 % -20.3 %
Daimler 2.8 % 9.9 % 3.3 % -71.9 % -14.2 %
FCA 12.1 % 25.8 % 15.6 % -53.1 % -22.3 %
Ford 21.5 % 26.1 % 21.2 % -17.4 % 1.3 %
GM 13.0 % 13.8 % 11.8 % -6.1 % 10.4 %
Honda 0.5 % 0.9 % 0.4 % -48.5 % 10.3 %
Hyundai 5.9 % 21.2 % 5.0 % -72.1 % 18.5 %
Kia 2.9 % 13.5 % 2.1 % -78.8 % 35.2 %
Nissan 7.4 % 30.7 % 3.7 % -75.9 % 101.3 %
Subaru 2.0 % 2.6 % 1.5 % -23.7 % 26.1 %
Tesla 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.1 %   25.3 %
Toyota 7.4 % 6.4 % 3.3 % 16.2 % 126.0 %
Volkswagen Group 0.4 % 1.3 % 0.4 % -67.8 % -1.7 %
Industry 9.2 % 15.0 % 8.4 % -39.0 % 8.7 %

Total Market Share















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual
BMW 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.3 %
Daimler 1.7 % 2.4 % 1.6 %
FCA 12.2 % 13.2 % 13.2 %
Ford 14.3 % 14.4 % 14.0 %
GM 17.4 % 15.6 % 17.6 %
Honda 9.8 % 9.8 % 9.4 %
Hyundai 4.1 % 4.4 % 4.1 %
Kia 4.0 % 3.7 % 4.1 %
Nissan 5.7 % 7.7 % 5.5 %
Subaru 4.7 % 4.1 % 4.4 %
Tesla 1.5 % 1.0 % 1.5 %
Toyota 15.3 % 14.0 % 14.7 %
Volkswagen Group 3.8 % 3.9 % 3.7 %

Retail Market Share















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual
BMW 2.1 % 2.2 % 2.4 %
Daimler 1.9 % 2.5 % 1.7 %
FCA 11.8 % 11.5 % 12.2 %
Ford 12.4 % 12.5 % 12.1 %
GM 16.7 % 15.8 % 17.0 %
Honda 10.7 % 11.4 % 10.2 %
Hyundai 4.2 % 4.1 % 4.3 %
Kia 4.2 % 3.8 % 4.4 %
Nissan 5.9 % 6.3 % 5.7 %
Subaru 5.0 % 4.7 % 4.8 %
Tesla 1.6 % 1.2 % 1.7 %
Toyota 15.6 % 15.5 % 15.6 %
Volkswagen Group 4.2 % 4.6 % 4.1 %

Average Transaction Price (ATP)















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $ 60,309 $ 57,413 $ 59,012 5.0 % 2.2 %
Daimler $ 58,080 $ 57,749 $ 58,474 0.6 % -0.7 %
FCA $ 43,200 $ 40,400 $ 42,679 6.9 % 1.2 %
Ford $ 43,521 $ 41,116 $ 43,297 5.8 % 0.5 %
GM $ 42,867 $ 41,441 $ 42,134 3.4 % 1.7 %
Honda $ 30,398 $ 29,370 $ 30,379 3.5 % 0.1 %
Hyundai $ 28,922 $ 26,184 $ 28,762 10.5 % 0.6 %
Kia $ 27,701 $ 26,094 $ 27,021 6.2 % 2.5 %
Nissan $ 29,144 $ 29,359 $ 29,149 -0.7 % 0.0 %
Subaru $ 30,193 $ 29,907 $ 29,976 1.0 % 0.7 %
Toyota $ 34,816 $ 33,273 $ 33,842 4.6 % 2.9 %
Volkswagen Group $ 41,772 $ 39,592 $ 41,107 5.5 % 1.6 %
Industry $ 37,018 $ 35,895 $ 36,756 3.1 % 0.7 %

Incentive Spending















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $ 5,049 $ 6,038 $ 5,859 -16.4 % -13.8 %
Daimler $ 5,187 $ 5,369 $ 5,675 -3.4 % -8.6 %
FCA $ 4,875 $ 4,906 $ 5,063 -0.6 % -3.7 %
Ford $ 4,355 $ 4,604 $ 4,301 -5.4 % 1.3 %
GM $ 5,254 $ 5,115 $ 5,667 2.7 % -7.3 %
Honda $ 2,663 $ 2,040 $ 2,624 30.5 % 1.5 %
Hyundai $ 2,682 $ 2,749 $ 2,486 -2.4 % 7.9 %
Kia $ 2,863 $ 3,541 $ 3,779 -19.1 % -24.2 %
Nissan $ 4,487 $ 3,927 $ 4,792 14.3 % -6.4 %
Subaru $ 1,781 $ 1,454 $ 1,747 22.5 % 1.9 %
Toyota $ 2,637 $ 2,444 $ 2,644 7.9 % -0.3 %
Volkswagen Group $ 3,802 $ 3,493 $ 4,336 8.9 % -12.3 %
Industry $ 3,869 $ 3,772 $ 4,083 2.6 % -5.2 %

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)















Manufacturer Oct 2020 Forecast Oct 2019 Actual Sep 2020 Actual YOY MOM
BMW 8.4 % 10.5 % 9.9 % -20.4 % -15.7 %
Daimler 8.9 % 9.3 % 9.7 % -3.9 % -8.0 %
FCA 11.3 % 12.1 % 11.9 % -7.1 % -4.9 %
Ford 10.0 % 11.2 % 9.9 % -10.6 % 0.7 %
GM 12.3 % 12.3 % 13.5 % -0.7 % -8.9 %
Honda 8.8 % 6.9 % 8.6 % 26.1 % 1.4 %
Hyundai 9.3 % 10.5 % 8.6 % -11.7 % 7.3 %
Kia 10.3 % 13.6 % 14.0 % -23.8 % -26.1 %
Nissan 15.4 % 13.4 % 16.4 % 15.1 % -6.3 %
Subaru 5.9 % 4.9 % 5.8 % 21.3 % 1.2 %
Toyota 7.6 % 7.3 % 7.8 % 3.1 % -3.0 %
Volkswagen Group 9.1 % 8.8 % 10.5 % 3.2 % -13.7 %
Industry 10.5 % 10.5 % 11.1 % -0.5 % -5.9 %

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars — all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit  www.truecar.com, and follow us on  Facebook  or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email:  [email protected]  

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/bad62bf8-879d-462c-9389-398cd8645153

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali [email protected] 424.258.8694

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